What upcoming events may impact crypto?
These are the upcoming crypto events that may impact crypto the most:
- 25 July 2025 – SEC decision on REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF
- 29–30 July 2025 – Federal Reserve rate decision and policy outlook
- 31 July 2025 – SEC deadline for Bitwise’s BITW crypto basket ETF
- 9 September 2025 – Franklin XRP ETF SEC approval deadline
- 10 October 2025 – SEC final deadline for Solana ETF approval
1. SEC Spot XRP ETF Decision (25 July)
Overview: The SEC will rule on the REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF, which would hold physical XRP. Approval could trigger institutional inflows, while rejection may pressure altcoins. XRP is trading near $2.21, up 36% this month.
What this means: A greenlight would validate XRP’s regulatory status and likely boost liquidity for correlated assets like SOL and ADA. (Cryptonews)
2. Federal Reserve Meeting (29–30 July)
Overview: The FOMC meets amid speculation about rate cuts, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 25 bps reduction. Bitcoin’s correlation with S&P 500 has risen to 0.76 over 30 days.
What this means: Dovish signals could lift crypto alongside equities, while hawkish rhetoric might amplify selloffs given high leverage (perpetual futures open interest at $774B). (CoinGape)
3. Bitwise BITW ETF Deadline (31 July)
Overview: SEC must decide on Bitwise’s application for a multi-asset crypto ETF holding BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. Bloomberg analysts assign 95% approval odds.
What this means: Approval would set precedent for diversified crypto ETFs, potentially unlocking $10B+ in institutional demand within months. (CoinJournal)
4. Franklin XRP ETF Verdict (9 September)
Overview: SEC’s final deadline for Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF, following Canada’s successful launch. The fund would track CME’s XRP index.
What this means: A U.S. approval could mirror Bitcoin ETF inflows ($12.4B in Q2 2025) and cement XRP as a bridge between crypto and traditional finance. (Bitrue)
5. Solana ETF Deadline (10 October)
Overview: SEC’s final decision window closes for VanEck’s Solana ETF. Tokens with 90%+ approval odds (per Bloomberg) have rallied 50-80% YTD.
What this means: SOL could see volatility akin to ETH’s 2024 ETF anticipation phase, with $3B+ options open interest likely to amplify price swings. (Bitcoinist)
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve meeting (29–30 July) poses the highest near-term risk, with crypto’s 0.76 correlation to equities amplifying macro sensitivity. However, the XRP ETF decision (25 July) could catalyze altcoin momentum if approved. Watch Bitcoin’s reaction to $116.5K support and ETH’s ability to hold $3.6K – breaks here may signal broader market direction.
